Estimates of Iraqi deaths

To: letters@independent.co.uk

21 July, 2005

Dear Sir,

You reported that Iraq Body Count and the Oxford Research Group have documented almost 25,000 Iraqi civilian deaths since the US-led invasion in March 2003 ('Iraq conflict claims 34 civilian lives each day', July 20). This has been misleadingly compared with the earlier Lancet estimate of 100,000 deaths.

Your news story stated: "The only previous attempt to assess the level of civilian casualties was published in The Lancet medical journal last October and put the figure at 100,000, based on a survey of Iraqi households. Although it was seized upon by opponents of the war as justifying their worst fears, its methodology was subsequently criticised."

Criticised by whom? In reality, the government and its supporters orchestrated a shameful propaganda campaign in response to the Lancet study.

The IBC/ORG report provides a baseline of the minimum estimate of civilian deaths. As the authors explained, their report "is a compilation of recorded deaths, not an estimate or projection". It is therefore not directly comparable with the Lancet estimate of 98,000 deaths.

The Lancet study was a rigorously peer-reviewed article in one of the world's most prestigious scientific journals. Before publication, its authors had already had to demonstrate that their methodology, analysis and conclusions were sound. No amount of government spin can change that.
yours, etc.
David Cromwell